***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 23.9 30.6 35.5 73.4 42.4 39.3 24.7 35.8 48.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 38.0 27.4 35.0 78.3 45.4 41.7 19.6 30.9 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 23.2 30.7 37.0 76.5 44.3 41.0 22.9 34.8 49.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 26.6 31.8 39.4 69.1 39.2 37.1 26.9 40.4 57.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.5 30.8 37.6 72.5 41.1 38.2 26.2 36.2 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 32.0 23.5 40.5 78.3 44.3 40.9 17.7 26.8 37.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.1 23.9 34.0 77.3 44.6 40.9 17.3 27.5 40.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 33.1 42.9 43.7 76.9 42.8 39.7 34.5 49.4 67.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 23.3 28.4 38.9 74.3 41.9 39.3 23.3 33.0 44.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 29.3 36.0 42.9 76.3 42.1 39.4 30.7 40.9 52.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.8 28.6 37.5 72.2 40.5 37.5 24.5 34.2 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.0 27.3 38.8 75.8 43.0 39.3 21.4 31.9 44.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 18.7 26.7 41.2 78.6 44.7 40.2 18.7 30.8 45.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 37.8 49.3 46.6 78.9 44.4 41.1 38.7 54.6 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 16.2 21.6 40.5 70.1 41.9 38.7 15.7 27.5 43.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 18.8 24.3 38.1 75.1 42.5 38.6 18.7 29.1 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 18.8 27.7 34.9 79.7 46.1 41.5 19.2 30.7 44.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 32.8 40.1 46.1 80.0 44.2 41.4 33.9 43.4 53.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 44.3 31.6 35.9 78.0 44.9 41.5 22.6 35.7 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 33.6 43.0 55.4 80.8 44.7 41.5 34.1 47.2 62.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.3 27.8 36.5 72.8 41.1 38.5 22.8 33.7 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.9 31.3 37.0 79.1 45.4 41.3 22.6 34.8 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.3 33.1 37.9 77.7 44.2 40.8 24.7 38.1 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 31.1 41.1 43.6 79.8 44.8 41.7 32.3 45.1 60.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 21.0 26.5 37.4 69.9 39.8 37.3 22.0 34.0 48.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 19.8 29.0 43.4 81.2 47.3 42.5 19.2 30.8 45.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 20.4 25.9 36.5 72.8 41.7 38.7 20.9 31.4 44.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 17.6 22.2 38.7 71.2 41.4 38.3 17.3 27.5 40.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 44.6 55.5 48.4 80.6 44.5 41.7 45.9 60.3 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 37.8 27.7 35.9 78.2 45.5 41.9 19.8 30.9 44.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------