***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 10.6 13.7 6.3 98.6 97.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.2 11.5 12.8 5.7 97.2 95.6 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.3 13.6 13.2 6.0 98.1 96.9 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 5.4 9.1 10.6 5.5 98.8 97.9 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 7.6 12.2 11.4 5.8 98.9 98.1 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.0 11.8 9.0 5.4 99.0 98.3 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.0 11.1 13.0 5.8 97.5 96.0 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 3.5 7.5 9.3 5.3 97.8 96.8 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 8.6 12.9 11.8 5.7 98.8 97.9 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 8.2 11.8 10.3 5.5 98.1 97.2 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 7.7 11.7 10.7 5.5 98.7 97.7 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 7.0 11.3 10.1 5.5 98.5 97.6 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.3 11.8 10.0 5.5 98.8 98.0 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 8.4 11.2 11.3 5.3 96.8 95.6 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 8.0 12.5 11.7 5.4 99.4 98.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.6 12.9 10.3 5.5 99.0 98.1 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.5 12.2 5.4 96.5 94.8 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.3 9.3 5.3 97.1 96.1 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.2 11.2 12.8 5.7 97.2 95.6 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 4.0 7.2 7.4 5.1 96.0 95.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.3 12.5 12.9 5.9 98.7 97.8 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 7.4 10.0 12.1 5.1 96.1 94.4 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 8.1 11.1 12.5 5.5 97.1 95.6 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.5 10.4 11.1 5.3 97.4 96.3 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.7 12.9 12.6 6.2 98.7 97.7 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.4 11.1 9.8 5.5 98.4 97.7 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 9.2 14.0 13.1 6.3 98.5 97.4 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.7 11.3 10.9 5.4 99.1 98.3 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 6.4 9.5 8.5 5.1 96.8 95.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 8.6 12.0 13.2 5.9 97.7 96.3 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------