***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 4.4 7.0 0.3 53.6 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.5 4.4 6.6 0.3 54.3 53.5 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.9 6.8 0.5 56.5 55.2 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.9 4.7 0.4 54.7 53.7 -0.3 1.5 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.8 4.9 0.3 54.4 53.6 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 4.4 3.4 3.6 0.7 59.4 57.4 0.9 2.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.2 6.5 0.3 53.4 52.8 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.6 0.5 3.9 0.5 56.9 55.6 -1.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.7 5.5 0.4 54.6 53.8 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.5 4.4 0.4 55.2 54.3 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 4.7 0.5 56.7 55.5 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 0.7 3.4 4.5 0.6 57.9 56.4 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 0.8 3.4 4.1 0.5 56.6 55.6 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.3 5.6 0.6 57.1 55.9 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.6 5.2 0.6 58.0 56.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.8 4.3 0.5 56.7 55.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.2 6.2 0.1 51.9 51.4 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.9 3.9 0.4 55.5 54.4 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.6 6.6 0.4 55.8 54.7 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -1.9 0.3 2.7 0.3 53.9 53.1 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 6.3 0.4 54.4 53.4 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.6 6.2 0.2 52.5 51.9 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.8 6.6 0.6 57.9 56.5 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.3 5.5 0.6 57.7 56.4 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.7 5.5 0.3 54.0 53.0 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.8 4.3 0.5 56.9 55.5 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.8 6.2 0.3 53.4 52.6 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.7 3.1 4.9 0.5 56.5 55.1 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.2 3.5 0.5 55.9 54.8 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.8 6.8 0.4 54.9 54.0 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------