***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 6.6 9.1 2.2 88.2 81.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 5.8 6.8 8.5 2.1 87.4 81.1 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 7.9 9.0 8.7 2.2 88.8 82.5 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 3.0 4.2 6.5 2.1 88.6 82.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 5.1 6.1 6.9 2.1 88.2 82.0 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 4.5 5.7 5.3 2.3 91.3 85.6 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 5.7 6.6 8.5 2.1 87.1 81.0 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 1.0 2.0 5.6 2.1 87.7 81.6 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 6.0 6.8 7.4 2.1 87.2 80.8 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.4 6.2 2.0 86.4 80.4 3.8 4.5 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 5.2 6.2 6.6 2.2 89.1 82.7 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 4.4 5.4 6.3 2.2 89.4 83.1 2.4 3.2 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 4.8 5.8 5.9 2.2 89.5 83.6 2.8 3.6 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 6.2 6.9 7.3 2.0 86.3 80.5 4.5 5.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 5.7 6.8 7.2 2.2 91.4 85.1 3.7 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 6.2 7.3 6.2 2.2 89.9 83.8 4.1 4.9 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 5.7 6.4 8.1 1.9 84.7 78.9 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 4.2 4.8 5.6 1.9 84.4 78.7 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 5.8 6.7 8.5 2.1 88.0 81.7 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 1.5 2.2 4.2 1.9 84.2 78.5 -0.6 0.3 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 5.7 6.6 8.3 2.1 87.5 81.1 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 5.0 5.7 8.1 1.8 84.2 78.5 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 5.7 6.5 8.4 2.2 88.5 82.3 3.8 4.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 5.2 5.9 7.2 2.1 86.7 80.6 3.5 4.2 4.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 6.2 7.3 7.7 2.2 88.9 82.6 4.1 4.9 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 5.2 6.2 6.0 2.2 90.1 84.1 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 6.3 7.4 8.4 2.2 88.4 82.2 4.0 4.9 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 4.3 5.3 6.8 2.2 89.9 83.7 2.3 3.1 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 4.0 4.8 5.1 1.9 84.5 79.0 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 6.1 7.1 8.8 2.2 88.2 81.9 4.0 4.8 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------