***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 17.1 16.4 2.3 88.1 81.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 16.0 17.3 16.2 2.3 89.1 81.7 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 16.8 18.1 16.6 2.3 88.2 81.1 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 10.0 11.1 14.5 2.1 85.1 78.1 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 16.7 17.8 15.2 2.2 85.8 78.8 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 16.1 17.3 14.2 2.4 85.8 79.1 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 15.8 17.1 16.1 2.3 88.7 81.3 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 8.3 9.2 14.3 2.3 85.3 78.8 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 17.0 18.2 15.9 2.3 86.3 79.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 16.5 17.6 15.0 2.3 85.4 78.7 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 16.9 18.2 15.2 2.3 86.7 79.6 14.2 15.4 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 16.6 17.9 15.0 2.4 87.1 80.4 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 17.1 18.5 15.0 2.5 88.1 81.3 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 17.1 18.1 15.8 2.2 84.4 78.0 14.5 15.5 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 15.3 16.3 15.0 2.2 87.9 80.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 17.6 18.9 15.1 2.4 87.3 80.1 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 15.3 16.3 15.6 2.1 87.0 79.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 15.7 16.5 14.5 2.2 83.5 77.3 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 16.2 17.6 16.5 2.4 89.3 81.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 13.6 14.3 12.5 2.0 82.1 76.3 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.9 16.2 2.2 86.3 79.3 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 16.1 17.1 15.8 2.0 85.8 78.8 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.8 16.7 2.4 88.9 81.7 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 17.2 18.3 15.8 2.3 85.3 78.8 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.9 15.0 2.1 86.3 79.4 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 16.6 17.8 14.5 2.4 87.0 80.9 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 16.5 17.6 15.7 2.2 87.3 80.3 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.8 14.9 2.2 86.0 78.7 13.5 14.4 15.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 12.8 13.6 13.8 2.1 82.6 76.7 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 16.0 17.3 16.4 2.4 89.4 81.9 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------