***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 21.3 21.8 6.3 97.8 96.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 19.3 22.9 21.8 6.3 97.7 96.5 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.9 23.9 22.2 6.5 97.7 96.6 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.3 17.8 19.5 6.2 97.6 96.1 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 20.3 24.7 20.9 6.6 97.7 96.5 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 19.9 24.1 19.4 6.7 97.0 95.8 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 19.1 22.7 21.5 6.2 97.5 96.3 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 11.6 15.0 19.2 6.3 95.1 93.9 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.9 21.9 6.8 97.8 96.6 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 19.9 23.4 20.4 6.6 96.2 95.0 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 20.5 24.9 20.9 6.7 97.3 96.2 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 20.2 24.1 20.1 6.5 96.4 95.3 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 20.8 25.3 20.6 6.9 97.4 96.3 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 20.4 23.5 21.3 6.2 95.4 94.2 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.7 20.9 6.2 98.5 97.0 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 21.3 26.0 20.8 6.9 97.8 96.7 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.7 22.0 20.9 5.9 97.0 95.7 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 19.1 21.9 19.6 6.2 94.2 92.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 19.3 23.1 22.0 6.4 97.8 96.7 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 17.1 19.3 17.0 5.4 90.8 89.6 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 20.1 24.2 22.0 6.5 97.5 96.2 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 19.4 22.6 20.9 5.7 96.7 95.3 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 19.5 23.2 22.2 6.6 97.8 96.7 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 20.4 23.8 21.3 6.5 95.9 94.7 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 19.1 22.6 20.5 6.2 97.4 96.1 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 20.2 23.9 19.3 6.3 96.4 95.2 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 19.8 23.7 21.2 6.2 97.4 96.2 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 19.6 24.0 20.4 6.4 97.9 96.5 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 16.1 18.6 18.6 5.8 92.4 91.1 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 19.2 22.9 22.0 6.4 97.8 96.7 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------