***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 18.7 17.3 2.1 73.1 67.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.4 17.2 2.2 75.1 68.4 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.7 17.5 2.1 72.8 67.0 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.7 15.5 1.8 69.5 65.3 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 18.2 18.2 16.0 1.8 68.5 64.3 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.7 17.5 15.1 1.9 69.1 64.7 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.6 18.2 17.0 2.1 74.7 68.1 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.6 9.6 15.3 1.9 69.8 65.1 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 18.5 18.6 16.6 1.8 68.9 64.3 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 18.0 18.0 15.8 1.8 69.0 64.3 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 18.5 18.5 16.0 1.9 69.5 64.8 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 18.0 18.2 16.0 2.0 71.0 66.0 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 18.7 18.8 15.8 2.1 71.4 66.2 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 18.7 19.0 16.7 2.1 71.3 65.7 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 17.1 17.3 15.8 2.1 72.9 67.9 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 19.2 19.3 15.8 1.9 70.0 65.2 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.5 16.6 2.0 73.1 66.9 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.3 15.5 1.9 69.2 64.3 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 17.9 18.6 17.5 2.3 75.2 68.5 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 14.9 14.9 13.7 1.9 69.9 65.0 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.3 17.0 1.9 69.8 65.0 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 18.0 18.3 16.8 2.0 72.6 66.6 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 18.2 18.8 17.6 2.3 74.6 68.1 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 18.7 19.0 16.7 2.0 70.7 65.3 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 17.5 17.6 15.9 1.9 71.0 66.0 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.2 15.6 2.0 71.6 66.8 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 18.1 18.4 16.6 2.0 72.6 66.9 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.4 15.8 1.9 70.2 65.9 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.1 14.8 1.9 69.8 64.7 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.7 18.4 17.4 2.2 75.1 68.5 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------