***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 14.4 14.1 0.4 54.7 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.7 13.9 0.4 55.4 55.1 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.6 14.3 0.4 55.0 54.9 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 8.8 12.3 0.0 50.4 52.2 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.1 12.8 0.2 52.0 53.1 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.9 12.0 0.2 52.6 53.4 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.3 13.8 0.4 55.0 54.7 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.9 12.2 0.4 55.3 55.0 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 13.5 0.3 53.2 53.6 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 12.8 0.3 54.0 54.1 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.6 12.9 0.3 54.2 54.6 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 12.9 0.5 56.6 56.0 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.0 12.7 0.5 56.6 56.0 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.5 15.6 13.5 0.3 53.8 53.6 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.8 12.5 0.1 51.1 52.9 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.4 12.7 0.3 54.0 54.6 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.6 13.4 0.3 53.3 53.3 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.3 12.5 0.4 54.2 53.9 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.9 14.2 0.5 55.8 55.4 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.8 10.7 0.4 55.0 54.5 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.3 13.9 0.3 53.0 53.5 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.4 13.6 0.3 53.2 53.3 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 14.3 0.5 56.0 55.5 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 13.6 0.4 54.5 54.2 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.2 12.7 0.2 52.6 53.2 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 12.5 0.5 56.6 55.8 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.2 13.5 0.3 54.2 54.1 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.3 12.5 0.0 50.5 52.4 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.8 11.8 0.4 54.8 54.3 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.7 14.1 0.5 55.8 55.4 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------