***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 12.4 12.3 0.3 54.0 54.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.7 12.1 12.1 0.4 54.6 55.1 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.3 13.0 12.4 0.3 53.9 54.7 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 8.1 6.3 10.6 0.3 53.6 54.5 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 10.0 12.7 11.1 0.3 53.3 54.4 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.4 10.4 0.6 56.1 56.1 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 13.5 11.9 11.9 0.4 54.6 55.1 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.4 4.9 10.4 0.5 54.9 55.6 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.3 13.2 11.6 0.3 53.0 54.3 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.9 12.6 10.9 0.3 53.5 54.6 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.2 13.2 11.1 0.4 54.8 55.3 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.0 13.0 11.1 0.6 56.2 56.4 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.3 10.8 0.6 56.7 56.7 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.3 11.7 0.2 52.4 53.7 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.1 11.8 10.9 0.5 55.7 55.6 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.4 13.6 11.0 0.5 55.5 55.7 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.4 11.5 11.6 0.3 53.4 54.2 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 11.5 10.5 0.3 52.8 54.3 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.0 12.5 12.3 0.4 54.6 55.0 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.8 8.8 0.4 54.1 55.2 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.0 12.8 12.0 0.3 53.0 54.2 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.1 11.8 0.2 52.7 53.6 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.1 12.6 12.4 0.4 54.2 54.8 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.8 13.5 11.7 0.3 52.9 54.2 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 13.7 11.9 11.0 0.3 53.4 54.6 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 10.7 0.7 57.7 57.5 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.3 12.5 11.6 0.3 53.8 54.8 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 12.9 11.6 10.9 0.4 54.5 54.8 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.0 9.8 0.3 53.3 54.7 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.5 12.1 12.2 0.4 54.7 55.2 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------