***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 32.7 47.3 101.1 59.2 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.3 35.7 44.8 97.5 56.7 48.6 18.7 30.2 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.7 41.1 45.9 99.9 57.7 50.4 22.3 34.6 49.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 48.6 52.3 55.2 107.0 62.4 54.5 26.9 40.3 56.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 26.5 45.9 53.6 109.0 63.4 55.3 26.7 36.6 48.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 32.4 30.3 52.2 97.4 55.4 49.6 17.5 26.7 38.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 34.4 32.8 45.6 97.1 57.0 49.5 17.4 27.7 40.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 58.3 60.0 55.2 104.2 60.1 53.6 33.7 49.1 67.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 38.1 40.2 51.8 106.0 61.4 53.7 23.0 32.6 44.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 46.6 48.1 55.1 105.2 60.7 53.7 30.0 40.6 52.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.8 42.7 49.4 108.3 63.0 54.8 23.7 33.6 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 37.8 38.6 47.8 103.0 59.6 53.4 21.0 31.5 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 39.2 38.3 51.4 101.3 58.3 52.7 19.1 31.1 46.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 63.2 56.5 52.0 94.1 52.2 47.1 38.4 54.2 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 35.5 41.2 58.1 109.7 64.1 55.0 16.2 28.0 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 19.1 36.9 49.5 103.9 60.1 53.0 19.0 29.4 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 19.0 37.0 45.8 98.2 57.5 49.0 18.7 30.5 45.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 47.9 47.5 60.7 101.0 57.4 51.5 33.1 42.7 53.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.8 41.1 44.2 97.0 56.0 48.3 21.7 35.5 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 55.2 54.7 79.1 102.1 58.3 52.4 34.1 47.4 62.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 39.9 40.7 47.9 102.7 59.5 52.1 22.6 33.5 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 42.1 40.8 46.1 99.2 57.7 49.2 20.2 33.2 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 24.4 41.1 44.6 94.9 54.0 47.5 24.0 37.5 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 51.7 49.5 52.9 99.1 56.1 50.0 30.8 44.2 59.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 40.8 43.2 54.8 104.3 60.8 53.5 21.1 33.4 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 36.8 40.1 53.0 105.9 61.4 55.2 17.9 30.0 45.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 36.2 36.1 51.4 100.5 58.7 52.0 18.5 29.2 42.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 32.9 36.6 54.6 107.5 62.7 54.4 15.3 26.1 39.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 45.1 66.8 67.6 100.3 57.0 51.3 45.7 60.3 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 19.7 36.3 44.8 97.3 56.5 49.1 19.5 31.0 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------