***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 12.0 12.6 124.0 71.5 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.2 10.2 10.1 109.2 67.1 55.9 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.8 11.5 10.4 106.9 66.0 53.8 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 15.0 14.5 123.0 70.9 57.9 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.6 13.3 112.3 67.4 55.7 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.7 9.8 77.1 55.0 44.9 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.6 10.0 10.9 113.8 68.6 56.5 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.6 12.1 11.2 88.7 59.0 47.1 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.0 11.7 101.2 63.7 52.3 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.3 11.7 94.5 60.9 49.2 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.9 11.1 97.9 62.7 49.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.1 9.7 83.7 58.0 47.1 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.5 11.1 88.4 59.3 51.0 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.0 9.0 85.3 57.1 49.6 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.5 14.6 15.9 134.4 73.9 60.2 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.8 11.0 93.1 61.2 50.3 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.3 9.7 11.1 114.6 69.1 58.3 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.3 12.3 94.2 60.3 50.9 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.7 13.8 9.3 103.6 65.0 54.1 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 14.5 18.4 112.2 66.0 57.2 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.4 11.2 104.7 65.3 52.4 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.1 11.0 10.8 114.9 68.8 59.1 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.1 8.6 93.2 60.7 50.9 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.4 10.4 93.8 60.5 51.0 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.1 14.7 15.4 132.7 73.5 61.0 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.3 12.0 95.2 62.7 54.4 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.9 13.8 124.2 71.3 59.0 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.2 13.8 118.0 69.5 56.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.2 17.1 13.6 98.1 61.7 52.8 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.7 12.1 10.2 108.9 66.9 54.6 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------