***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 4.2 8.7 67.5 50.4 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.7 9.0 65.2 48.4 36.8 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.3 9.6 72.3 52.3 40.0 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.7 10.9 77.5 56.6 42.6 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.9 11.4 85.8 59.8 46.5 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.0 13.1 91.3 61.1 45.7 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.2 4.1 8.8 63.6 48.0 36.6 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.7 12.8 89.7 59.3 45.1 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.1 11.4 85.2 58.5 45.4 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.5 12.6 87.7 58.4 45.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.3 11.2 91.5 61.2 46.0 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.8 11.4 93.9 61.9 46.4 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.3 12.8 95.5 62.9 48.5 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 9.8 12.8 76.8 52.6 41.1 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.6 11.4 78.9 57.0 41.9 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.8 11.8 93.7 62.4 47.0 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.6 9.0 64.9 47.7 36.4 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.5 14.7 86.6 56.4 44.2 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 5.5 9.3 66.3 48.6 37.0 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 8.4 18.1 81.7 54.7 43.6 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.7 9.9 79.2 56.3 42.7 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.7 9.3 66.6 47.4 36.4 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.7 10.1 68.9 49.7 38.1 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.7 12.7 81.9 55.1 42.8 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.4 10.5 74.7 54.4 42.9 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.8 12.9 98.2 63.5 47.6 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.0 4.7 9.8 69.7 51.4 39.7 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.9 11.6 83.7 58.8 43.2 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.4 16.7 86.2 56.2 44.5 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.8 9.0 65.5 48.5 37.2 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------