***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 5.0 11.9 98.2 64.2 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.5 8.1 12.1 104.9 65.7 49.9 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.9 12.4 105.1 65.9 50.7 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.5 13.2 105.1 65.8 49.4 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.4 12.9 109.6 67.4 51.1 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.2 6.2 13.8 105.4 66.1 52.6 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.4 11.9 100.0 64.2 49.0 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.4 14.3 109.6 66.8 52.7 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.9 13.3 111.3 67.9 51.9 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 9.7 14.5 112.7 68.0 53.1 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.3 8.3 12.4 115.6 69.0 52.8 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.7 11.8 105.3 65.8 51.8 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.7 12.5 99.7 64.1 51.3 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.1 13.4 14.8 102.9 65.0 52.4 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.8 6.4 14.3 110.1 67.9 50.6 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.6 12.1 106.5 66.2 51.1 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.7 11.6 99.7 64.1 48.8 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.5 16.3 106.5 65.8 52.0 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.7 12.1 105.4 65.7 50.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.4 20.2 100.4 63.6 50.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.4 12.1 104.2 65.9 49.6 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.5 11.6 98.9 63.5 49.8 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.7 12.3 103.5 65.0 50.8 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.8 11.5 14.6 106.0 66.3 52.2 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.2 12.9 96.8 63.1 48.7 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.8 13.3 109.7 67.1 53.0 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.5 12.5 94.4 62.7 48.9 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.9 6.8 13.3 108.7 67.2 50.2 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 15.0 18.2 102.9 64.7 51.1 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.4 12.1 104.3 65.7 50.2 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------