***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 13.3 14.1 121.6 71.0 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 17.2 13.6 119.7 70.7 52.9 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.5 16.0 13.6 120.9 71.0 54.5 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 21.4 16.6 126.0 72.4 56.7 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.6 16.2 15.9 130.6 73.4 57.2 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.1 11.5 15.4 115.7 69.9 54.9 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.1 15.2 14.1 119.9 70.7 53.2 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.8 27.9 16.9 130.0 73.1 58.9 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 14.5 15.4 128.4 72.9 56.6 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 15.1 16.4 127.5 72.5 57.5 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.0 14.8 14.8 129.8 73.3 57.5 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 15.4 14.8 130.9 73.4 58.5 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.6 16.0 15.0 122.4 71.4 57.0 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 17.9 15.3 112.9 68.7 54.8 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.2 15.9 16.5 120.7 71.0 55.0 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.2 15.5 14.6 123.1 71.8 57.0 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.2 17.2 14.1 123.0 71.6 53.3 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.7 17.3 118.1 70.0 56.1 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 15.7 13.5 121.1 71.0 53.9 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 20.6 22.4 120.1 70.4 57.6 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.5 14.6 124.0 71.7 54.9 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 17.0 14.4 126.1 72.5 54.9 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.2 16.6 13.7 120.4 70.8 55.1 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 15.1 15.2 116.6 69.7 55.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.5 16.1 16.0 118.1 70.5 54.9 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.1 14.7 121.5 71.0 55.6 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.2 13.5 15.4 119.9 70.8 54.3 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.0 13.6 16.0 122.6 71.6 56.0 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 22.9 19.1 116.5 69.5 56.4 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.0 14.4 13.5 119.3 70.5 53.2 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------