***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 7.9 8.5 10.9 2.7 80.9 78.9 4.8 6.0 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.4 10.3 2.5 79.3 77.5 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 10.0 10.6 11.1 2.6 81.6 80.0 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 5.0 5.2 7.9 2.2 76.1 75.5 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 7.2 7.6 9.1 2.3 77.4 76.2 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 6.0 6.1 5.6 1.3 67.5 66.6 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 7.4 7.8 10.1 2.2 75.7 74.2 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 2.5 2.6 6.1 1.4 68.8 67.9 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.2 8.5 1.7 73.6 71.7 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 7.3 7.4 6.7 1.4 68.9 67.9 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 6.8 6.9 7.7 1.3 68.3 67.4 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 5.9 6.0 6.8 1.4 68.0 67.2 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 5.2 5.4 5.9 0.4 54.8 54.6 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 6.6 7.3 7.5 0.9 62.9 62.1 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.5 8.6 1.4 71.5 70.5 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 6.7 7.4 6.7 1.0 63.3 62.7 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 7.5 7.8 9.7 2.2 75.9 74.6 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 5.1 5.7 5.7 0.8 60.4 60.0 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 7.9 8.5 10.5 2.6 81.1 79.3 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 1.8 2.8 4.9 1.2 64.7 64.2 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.8 9.5 1.7 73.0 71.2 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 7.0 7.2 9.9 2.1 76.4 75.0 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 7.8 8.4 10.4 2.5 81.1 79.5 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 5.8 6.5 7.6 1.1 64.5 63.6 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 8.4 9.2 10.7 3.0 83.2 81.3 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 5.5 5.9 6.0 0.7 59.4 58.8 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 8.4 8.9 10.3 2.3 76.0 74.1 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 5.8 6.0 7.4 1.4 69.0 68.3 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 4.5 5.3 5.4 1.2 64.5 63.9 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 8.3 8.9 10.9 2.7 81.6 79.9 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------