***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 6.0 7.0 8.9 2.2 86.7 81.5 3.9 4.8 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.5 8.2 1.9 84.8 79.5 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.8 8.7 2.0 86.9 82.0 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 3.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 86.2 81.3 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.8 6.6 1.9 84.6 79.9 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 4.3 4.8 4.3 1.6 80.8 76.4 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.3 8.2 1.8 83.8 78.7 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.8 1.3 4.3 1.5 78.9 75.1 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.5 6.6 1.7 82.9 78.3 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 5.5 6.0 5.1 1.5 79.5 75.6 3.8 4.5 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 5.0 5.7 5.7 1.6 81.2 77.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.6 5.0 1.5 79.5 75.6 2.4 3.2 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 4.5 4.7 4.6 1.2 74.5 70.9 2.8 3.6 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.3 6.1 1.3 76.8 72.8 4.5 5.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 5.6 6.5 7.1 1.9 88.0 82.9 3.7 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.4 5.2 1.5 79.3 75.2 4.1 4.9 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 5.6 6.3 7.8 1.7 82.6 77.6 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.0 4.3 4.3 1.3 75.2 71.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.5 8.2 1.9 85.9 80.7 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.6 3.1 1.3 74.7 71.3 -0.6 0.3 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 5.5 6.3 7.9 1.8 83.7 79.0 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 5.0 5.6 7.8 1.6 82.8 77.8 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.3 8.1 1.9 86.0 81.1 3.8 4.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.4 6.0 1.4 78.4 74.6 3.5 4.2 4.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 6.1 7.1 8.0 2.3 87.5 82.2 4.1 4.9 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 4.8 5.2 4.4 1.3 75.2 71.3 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 6.1 7.1 8.4 2.1 84.6 79.5 4.0 4.9 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 4.1 4.8 6.0 1.8 84.3 79.6 2.3 3.1 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 3.8 4.2 3.8 1.3 75.5 72.2 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.9 8.6 2.0 86.4 81.2 4.0 4.8 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------