***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 19.6 21.0 21.3 4.5 88.4 87.4 15.4 16.9 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 19.3 20.5 21.5 4.4 88.4 87.3 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 19.8 20.9 21.5 4.2 86.0 85.0 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 13.1 13.5 17.2 3.5 80.0 79.3 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 20.0 20.5 18.9 3.4 79.9 79.0 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 19.7 19.8 17.2 2.9 76.9 76.3 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 19.1 20.3 21.3 4.4 88.3 87.2 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 11.0 11.1 17.0 2.6 73.7 73.1 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 20.2 20.6 19.7 3.2 79.5 78.6 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 19.3 19.4 18.1 2.8 74.4 73.7 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 20.0 20.4 19.3 3.1 77.8 77.0 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 19.8 20.1 18.0 3.0 77.3 76.6 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 20.6 21.0 19.2 3.2 79.1 78.4 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 20.0 20.2 19.8 3.0 76.5 75.6 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 18.5 19.5 19.8 4.1 86.3 85.7 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 21.1 21.5 18.9 3.4 80.0 79.3 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.7 19.9 20.9 4.3 87.6 86.4 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 18.6 18.6 17.4 2.6 72.7 72.0 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 19.2 20.5 21.6 4.3 87.7 86.6 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.4 15.7 2.4 72.0 71.4 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 19.9 20.5 20.5 3.5 81.3 80.4 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 19.3 20.1 20.6 3.7 84.4 83.2 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 19.4 20.6 21.6 4.3 87.0 85.9 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 20.0 20.3 19.7 3.1 77.1 76.3 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 19.0 19.9 19.8 4.0 84.9 84.0 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 20.2 21.0 17.9 3.6 83.8 83.1 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 19.8 21.1 20.7 4.3 87.4 86.5 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 19.4 19.9 18.1 3.4 80.3 79.7 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 15.5 15.5 17.0 2.6 72.9 72.2 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 19.2 20.5 21.6 4.5 88.6 87.6 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------