***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 17.6 17.4 17.2 1.6 66.8 62.4 13.3 15.4 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.9 16.9 1.3 63.4 59.8 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.5 17.3 1.3 63.3 59.6 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.5 14.7 1.9 68.6 64.1 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.4 15.5 1.2 62.3 59.4 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.9 14.5 1.5 63.8 60.8 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.9 16.9 1.4 64.6 60.8 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.0 13.7 0.5 54.8 54.0 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.6 16.1 1.1 60.9 58.3 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.6 16.6 14.7 0.7 56.7 55.3 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.5 15.7 1.1 60.7 58.2 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.8 14.7 0.9 59.1 57.2 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.5 15.3 1.1 60.4 58.2 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.9 16.8 15.6 0.4 53.7 52.8 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 16.8 17.5 16.5 2.4 74.9 69.2 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.5 15.5 1.4 63.4 60.3 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.3 16.3 1.1 62.2 59.0 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.8 15.5 14.0 0.3 53.2 52.6 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.9 17.0 1.2 62.2 58.8 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.6 11.7 -0.1 48.7 49.4 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.3 16.8 1.1 61.6 58.7 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.5 16.1 0.7 58.1 55.9 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.0 17.0 1.1 61.1 57.9 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.1 15.8 0.6 55.9 54.5 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.9 15.8 1.4 64.6 61.0 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.1 14.3 1.1 61.0 58.6 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 17.8 17.5 16.6 1.5 65.6 61.6 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 17.2 17.5 15.6 2.1 70.9 66.0 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 11.9 13.1 0.1 50.5 50.7 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.2 17.0 17.1 1.4 64.4 60.5 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------