***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.2 15.4 2.0 72.2 68.0 12.8 14.7 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.3 15.3 2.0 72.0 67.6 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.6 15.7 2.0 71.4 67.5 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.5 13.0 2.0 71.5 68.0 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.1 13.8 1.9 69.3 66.2 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 17.1 16.7 12.8 1.9 68.2 65.6 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.1 15.4 2.1 72.7 68.1 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.0 12.6 1.5 65.7 63.7 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 17.3 17.3 14.3 1.8 68.3 65.4 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 17.0 16.7 13.5 1.7 66.5 64.1 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.5 13.8 1.9 69.1 66.0 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.2 13.4 1.7 68.3 65.6 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 17.7 17.4 13.2 1.8 68.2 65.6 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.1 14.4 1.6 65.7 63.2 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 15.6 15.9 13.6 2.1 73.9 70.1 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 18.3 18.3 13.7 2.0 70.0 66.7 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.3 15.0 1.9 70.9 66.6 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 16.1 15.6 13.3 1.6 65.3 63.2 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.5 16.7 15.5 2.0 71.5 67.3 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 14.4 13.6 11.0 1.2 61.8 60.8 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.1 14.9 1.8 69.2 65.9 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.1 14.8 1.7 69.1 65.4 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.6 15.6 2.0 70.3 66.6 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 17.7 17.4 14.5 1.8 67.2 64.4 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.0 13.8 1.8 70.1 66.7 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 17.2 17.0 12.8 1.7 69.4 66.5 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.1 14.8 2.0 71.5 67.4 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.6 13.3 2.1 72.0 68.4 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.0 12.5 1.4 63.6 62.1 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.4 15.5 2.1 72.7 68.2 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------