***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 14.4 13.9 13.4 1.5 66.5 63.1 10.2 12.1 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.3 13.3 1.5 66.3 62.6 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.3 13.7 1.5 65.7 62.3 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.5 10.8 1.4 65.3 62.0 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.5 13.9 11.8 1.4 64.5 61.8 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.0 13.6 11.3 1.6 65.4 62.8 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.2 13.3 1.6 66.9 63.2 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 6.4 5.8 11.0 1.3 63.4 61.6 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.0 14.4 12.4 1.3 63.5 61.2 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.3 13.6 11.7 1.3 62.9 61.0 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.5 12.0 1.5 65.7 63.0 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.2 11.7 1.6 66.4 64.0 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.5 11.6 1.7 66.8 64.4 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.2 12.5 1.1 60.9 59.2 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.8 11.4 1.4 66.1 62.6 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.1 11.9 1.7 66.9 63.9 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.0 12.6 13.0 1.3 64.8 61.6 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 13.2 12.5 11.6 1.3 62.0 60.3 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 14.1 13.7 13.4 1.5 65.6 62.2 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 11.5 10.5 9.5 1.0 59.7 58.8 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.0 12.9 1.3 63.7 61.1 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.1 12.8 1.2 63.1 60.5 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 14.2 13.7 13.6 1.4 64.5 61.4 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.3 14.6 12.6 1.3 62.9 60.6 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.1 11.7 1.3 64.2 61.6 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.3 11.3 1.7 68.5 65.8 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 14.5 13.9 12.8 1.5 65.9 62.8 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 12.7 12.5 11.2 1.5 65.7 62.3 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.8 9.9 10.9 1.2 61.0 59.7 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.4 13.4 1.6 67.0 63.3 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------