***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 16.4 17.5 16.8 2.4 85.9 80.7 13.7 14.8 15.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.8 16.8 2.3 84.7 79.3 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.6 17.0 2.3 83.6 78.7 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 10.1 10.9 13.9 2.2 83.3 79.2 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 16.7 17.2 15.0 2.0 80.3 76.0 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.7 13.9 2.0 79.2 75.2 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 15.8 16.7 16.7 2.3 85.3 79.8 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.4 13.6 1.5 74.0 70.1 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 17.0 17.5 15.6 1.9 79.1 74.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.6 14.5 1.6 74.8 70.8 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 16.9 17.5 15.2 1.9 79.2 74.8 14.2 15.4 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.0 14.4 1.8 78.6 74.2 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 17.0 17.5 14.8 2.0 79.2 74.9 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.1 15.6 1.5 73.3 69.1 14.5 15.5 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 15.4 16.3 15.4 2.5 88.0 84.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 17.6 18.3 15.0 2.1 81.3 76.8 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 15.3 16.0 16.3 2.2 83.4 77.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.6 14.1 1.5 72.1 68.3 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 16.2 17.0 16.9 2.2 83.8 78.5 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 13.2 13.2 12.0 1.1 68.0 64.9 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 16.7 17.3 16.3 1.9 80.2 75.8 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 16.0 16.5 16.1 1.8 79.6 74.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 16.4 17.1 16.9 2.2 82.7 77.5 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.4 15.6 1.7 75.7 71.4 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.5 15.3 2.1 82.9 78.3 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 16.6 17.2 14.1 2.0 81.8 77.7 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 16.5 17.4 16.2 2.3 84.7 79.5 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 15.8 16.6 14.6 2.3 84.1 80.1 13.5 14.4 15.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.6 13.4 1.3 70.2 66.7 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 16.0 16.9 16.9 2.4 85.4 80.0 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------