***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.3 7.0 58.1 47.8 32.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.4 5.9 7.1 68.0 52.0 35.1 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.4 7.0 60.3 48.9 33.3 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 2.8 5.8 7.7 55.5 46.3 33.9 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.0 6.0 7.0 57.9 47.4 33.6 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.1 4.4 6.7 50.8 44.6 32.1 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.0 6.8 63.7 49.6 34.5 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 9.2 9.4 64.4 49.8 36.9 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.5 6.5 6.7 54.5 46.2 33.6 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.4 8.1 8.2 60.6 47.5 34.8 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.3 6.3 7.2 56.7 46.6 32.2 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.9 8.2 60.0 48.6 35.1 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.8 5.4 8.0 57.7 47.0 33.0 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 6.0 13.1 9.5 72.3 52.7 36.9 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.0 4.9 7.1 54.3 48.4 33.2 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.1 5.5 7.4 56.0 46.3 32.4 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.1 7.3 71.0 52.5 36.8 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.3 7.4 8.7 61.2 46.9 35.1 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.2 7.0 66.2 50.9 34.4 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.6 9.3 11.1 69.1 52.0 39.5 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.7 5.4 6.8 54.7 45.8 32.8 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.1 7.6 72.8 53.0 38.6 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.6 6.9 61.6 49.0 33.9 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.6 8.2 8.0 63.4 49.0 33.9 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.0 5.6 7.1 55.3 45.4 32.6 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.8 9.1 67.7 54.1 39.3 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.9 5.6 7.0 56.2 46.5 32.3 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.6 5.8 7.2 55.1 47.3 33.2 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.2 11.6 9.6 65.8 49.3 36.9 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.6 6.8 63.7 50.1 33.8 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------