***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.5 14.1 19.8 143.3 76.1 61.4 2.2 5.0 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 10.1 11.8 18.0 139.0 75.1 61.2 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.9 15.2 19.5 146.9 76.9 61.2 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.9 16.4 21.7 141.9 75.9 63.5 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.2 13.7 19.4 134.3 74.1 61.4 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.9 11.4 19.5 135.2 74.2 60.8 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.6 9.4 18.1 140.3 75.4 61.3 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.9 18.5 21.4 143.9 76.2 64.3 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.8 11.6 18.7 134.5 74.1 60.7 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.2 16.1 20.2 136.8 74.6 61.3 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.3 12.1 19.6 132.3 73.4 60.5 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 6.6 12.6 19.8 140.5 75.4 63.1 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 12.2 15.1 21.3 147.0 76.9 63.8 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.3 22.2 23.1 142.7 75.9 61.5 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 10.7 13.8 22.5 147.6 77.0 64.7 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.6 12.7 20.0 141.4 75.6 62.9 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.9 12.2 18.2 139.1 75.2 61.2 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 12.1 15.1 21.7 142.6 75.9 62.4 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.4 14.5 18.6 140.8 75.5 61.5 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 14.9 19.6 27.2 150.9 77.9 66.6 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.3 15.6 19.1 141.9 75.8 60.4 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 13.3 16.9 19.9 147.0 76.9 63.2 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.4 17.4 19.9 142.6 75.9 61.3 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.3 18.7 21.1 141.8 75.7 60.6 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 10.8 14.1 21.8 143.4 76.1 62.9 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.6 17.2 24.6 160.9 79.7 66.5 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 9.6 11.6 20.9 142.6 75.9 62.0 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.6 11.8 20.6 141.5 75.8 62.8 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 16.6 20.6 23.4 145.3 76.6 63.6 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 10.0 12.1 18.6 142.0 75.8 61.6 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------