***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.6 13.6 112.5 68.3 50.3 2.9 5.4 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.1 12.0 102.1 65.7 50.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.2 12.1 96.2 63.7 48.9 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.1 14.9 108.5 67.7 52.1 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.0 12.3 92.2 62.4 48.5 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.7 11.7 95.5 63.2 51.0 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.5 8.1 12.3 106.9 66.9 50.6 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.0 11.9 86.5 59.8 49.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.3 12.3 88.8 60.7 47.4 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.2 12.1 85.6 59.2 48.0 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.4 11.0 87.8 60.7 47.9 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.5 11.0 89.1 60.9 48.5 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.6 7.6 12.2 98.1 63.6 49.3 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.8 13.1 84.2 59.2 47.7 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.7 15.8 112.0 69.0 53.3 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.1 11.7 96.7 63.7 49.6 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.4 9.2 11.6 103.6 65.9 50.7 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.1 12.4 82.5 57.8 48.0 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.2 11.7 97.3 64.0 49.9 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.0 14.8 85.5 59.3 51.2 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.0 13.0 99.9 64.4 48.8 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.9 9.6 11.4 96.1 63.5 50.4 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.5 11.5 89.8 61.3 48.2 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.8 12.1 82.4 58.1 47.3 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.3 16.2 122.9 71.1 51.9 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.0 7.8 13.7 106.9 66.9 52.8 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 9.7 15.0 120.5 70.4 50.5 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.4 13.1 100.8 65.8 51.4 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.2 13.1 83.1 58.0 49.1 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.3 12.1 99.6 65.0 49.8 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------