***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 15.5 14.7 118.9 70.1 57.0 4.4 8.2 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 17.3 18.7 15.0 131.2 73.2 59.3 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.0 15.1 14.5 116.5 69.3 57.1 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 20.1 25.2 19.7 145.4 76.5 61.4 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.9 16.0 16.6 129.2 72.8 59.0 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.6 15.7 129.5 73.0 58.3 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.7 14.9 132.1 73.4 59.6 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 27.9 17.5 131.0 73.1 59.7 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.6 15.2 114.1 68.8 57.0 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.7 16.3 118.0 69.6 58.1 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.1 15.4 16.5 135.1 74.2 59.6 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.9 15.8 16.2 134.9 74.1 59.2 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 16.4 17.5 16.6 133.5 73.9 59.2 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.5 17.4 16.9 112.0 67.7 55.9 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 15.1 21.2 23.0 161.4 79.5 62.3 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 15.5 17.7 16.9 140.8 75.5 60.0 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 17.1 19.8 15.6 140.4 75.4 61.2 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 14.0 15.9 108.8 66.7 56.9 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.4 14.9 127.0 72.1 58.6 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 20.8 21.5 123.1 70.8 59.2 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.7 13.3 14.7 115.2 69.2 57.2 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.4 17.7 15.9 133.4 73.7 59.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.5 15.1 121.8 70.7 58.1 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.6 13.9 15.2 109.7 67.1 56.7 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.9 16.6 124.9 71.7 58.0 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.3 17.6 17.8 140.4 75.5 60.0 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.5 15.3 120.8 70.6 56.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.1 17.3 19.7 152.3 77.9 61.6 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.9 21.1 17.1 110.6 67.1 57.0 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.0 14.8 125.3 71.7 58.1 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------