***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 40.4 45.9 55.2 109.5 64.1 55.5 21.6 33.5 47.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 36.4 44.3 52.0 111.9 65.3 56.6 18.7 30.2 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 41.1 45.7 53.1 106.4 62.4 55.1 22.3 34.6 49.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 48.0 56.5 64.0 113.4 66.0 57.8 26.9 40.3 56.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 42.1 44.5 55.3 104.9 61.4 54.4 26.7 36.6 48.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 32.1 33.7 53.6 103.2 60.2 53.8 17.5 26.7 38.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 33.3 40.0 52.1 112.3 65.5 56.8 17.4 27.7 40.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 57.2 62.0 60.1 106.4 62.0 55.6 33.7 49.1 67.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 37.9 37.9 52.9 99.1 57.9 52.0 23.0 32.6 44.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 46.2 46.8 56.9 101.0 58.8 52.9 30.0 40.6 52.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 39.0 40.9 54.3 103.8 60.6 53.5 23.7 33.6 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 37.5 40.5 55.2 105.9 61.7 54.9 21.0 31.5 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 38.6 43.7 58.1 109.1 63.6 56.2 19.1 31.1 46.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 62.1 66.0 62.6 104.4 60.8 53.5 38.4 54.2 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 34.9 47.5 68.3 120.6 69.3 60.4 16.2 28.0 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 35.5 39.7 56.0 108.8 63.4 55.7 19.0 29.4 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 37.2 46.8 52.7 115.4 67.1 58.1 18.7 30.5 45.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 47.4 47.5 58.7 99.5 57.5 52.3 33.1 42.7 53.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 42.7 50.4 52.2 109.8 64.2 55.9 21.7 35.5 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 54.3 59.4 74.6 108.1 62.9 57.3 34.1 47.4 62.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 39.9 42.0 53.6 103.8 60.9 54.1 22.6 33.5 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 40.7 51.0 54.8 114.7 66.7 57.7 20.2 33.2 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 44.6 49.7 53.3 106.1 62.1 54.7 24.0 37.5 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 50.5 51.8 56.4 100.6 58.4 52.4 30.8 44.2 59.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.4 48.7 61.7 113.2 66.0 56.9 21.1 33.4 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 50.4 49.6 65.2 120.2 69.5 62.4 17.9 30.0 45.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 35.7 41.8 58.2 111.4 65.1 55.7 18.5 29.2 42.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 32.6 39.9 60.7 113.2 66.0 57.6 15.3 26.1 39.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 67.8 68.8 63.2 102.0 59.0 53.7 45.7 60.3 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 37.2 43.1 52.3 109.5 64.1 55.7 19.5 31.0 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------