***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 7.3 7.5 10.3 2.2 74.0 73.1 4.9 6.0 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 7.6 7.9 10.1 2.3 76.5 75.6 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 9.8 10.0 10.6 2.4 77.8 76.9 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 5.0 5.8 9.0 3.5 86.4 85.3 2.3 3.3 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 7.2 7.4 9.1 2.5 78.2 77.5 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 6.6 6.6 6.1 2.0 75.0 74.3 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 7.4 7.6 10.1 2.3 75.9 75.0 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 3.0 3.2 6.6 2.3 77.9 77.1 -0.2 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 8.1 8.2 8.6 2.1 76.2 75.4 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.7 7.9 7.3 2.3 77.7 76.9 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 7.2 7.3 8.1 2.0 75.6 74.9 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 6.6 6.6 7.3 2.1 75.7 75.1 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 48 52 100 6.2 6.3 6.7 1.3 67.0 66.5 3.8 5.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 7.9 8.1 8.3 2.0 74.9 74.1 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 7.7 8.4 9.8 2.8 85.2 84.1 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 7.9 8.0 7.4 1.9 73.0 72.4 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 7.5 7.7 10.0 2.5 77.8 76.7 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 6.7 7.0 6.9 2.4 77.9 77.1 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 7.6 7.9 10.3 2.5 78.6 77.7 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.7 4.0 5.7 2.6 77.6 76.9 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 7.6 7.7 9.6 2.0 74.2 73.4 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 6.9 7.1 10.0 2.2 76.9 75.8 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 7.6 8.1 10.3 2.7 81.6 80.6 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 7.1 7.2 8.4 2.2 76.4 75.5 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 7.9 8.1 9.8 2.3 75.0 74.1 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 7.0 7.0 6.9 2.0 73.9 73.2 4.2 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 8.0 8.2 9.9 2.1 72.2 71.3 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 6.4 7.1 8.9 3.1 84.4 83.2 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 5.9 6.0 6.0 2.3 76.4 75.7 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 7.9 8.1 10.4 2.4 76.8 75.9 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------