***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.5 5.5 0.0 50.2 51.3 1.9 3.4 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.8 5.1 0.1 51.2 52.1 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.1 5.5 0.2 52.2 53.3 3.5 4.9 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.5 2.6 0.0 49.6 50.1 -1.9 -0.4 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.2 2.9 -0.1 48.4 49.9 0.8 2.3 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -0.3 1.8 1.2 0.1 50.7 51.9 0.0 1.7 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.8 5.1 0.0 49.7 50.9 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -2.4 1.5 0.1 50.7 52.1 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.1 3.4 -0.1 49.2 50.8 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.8 2.1 0.0 50.2 51.6 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.3 2.3 -0.1 48.2 49.9 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.4 1.8 -0.1 48.8 50.7 -0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.8 1.5 -0.2 47.9 50.3 0.4 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 3.5 0.1 52.1 52.7 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.9 3.0 3.6 0.1 51.7 51.6 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.1 1.9 -0.1 48.0 49.8 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.8 4.9 0.0 49.5 50.9 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.3 1.6 0.1 51.5 52.3 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.1 5.2 0.2 52.2 53.1 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -1.2 0.4 0.2 52.9 53.5 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.9 4.6 0.0 50.4 51.6 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.6 4.9 0.1 51.2 52.4 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.1 5.1 0.2 52.8 53.7 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.6 3.1 0.1 51.7 52.7 1.1 2.5 3.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.1 4.2 0.0 50.3 50.8 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 0.3 2.0 1.3 -0.2 47.5 50.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.0 4.9 -0.1 49.1 50.3 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.3 2.6 0.0 49.5 50.2 -0.4 1.3 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.4 0.9 1.3 0.2 52.0 52.6 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.2 5.3 0.1 51.3 52.3 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------