***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 19.0 20.4 21.1 4.8 88.3 87.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 18.8 20.1 21.2 4.8 89.1 88.0 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 19.5 20.9 21.5 4.9 87.8 86.7 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.1 15.0 19.0 5.6 90.4 89.3 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 19.8 21.1 19.8 4.8 87.0 85.8 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 19.4 20.5 17.9 4.5 85.4 84.3 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 18.6 19.9 21.1 4.8 89.2 88.1 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 11.0 12.2 18.4 4.8 86.6 85.3 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 20.0 21.5 20.8 5.0 88.3 87.2 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 19.4 20.6 19.4 4.9 86.3 85.1 15.5 17.0 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 20.0 21.2 20.0 4.6 85.4 84.2 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 19.7 21.1 19.0 4.8 86.9 85.6 15.5 17.1 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 20.2 21.0 19.2 3.9 82.3 81.1 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 19.9 21.1 20.7 4.8 86.9 85.8 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.1 19.9 21.0 5.6 92.3 91.2 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 20.8 22.0 19.4 4.5 85.6 84.5 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 18.2 19.6 20.8 4.9 89.8 88.6 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 18.7 20.1 19.1 5.1 87.3 86.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 18.9 20.4 21.6 5.1 89.7 88.7 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 16.6 18.1 17.3 5.0 87.9 86.6 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 19.6 20.8 21.3 4.8 87.1 86.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 18.9 20.1 20.6 4.4 87.9 86.8 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 19.1 21.0 22.3 5.7 92.0 90.9 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 20.0 21.3 20.8 5.0 87.3 86.1 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 18.6 19.7 20.1 4.7 87.3 86.2 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 19.7 21.4 18.6 5.0 89.6 88.2 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 19.3 20.6 20.6 4.7 88.2 87.0 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 19.2 20.8 19.7 5.3 89.7 88.6 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 15.7 17.1 18.4 5.0 87.3 86.0 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 18.7 20.0 21.3 4.8 88.7 87.6 15.4 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------