***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 17.7 17.5 16.7 1.6 67.6 64.7 13.2 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.3 16.7 1.6 67.6 64.2 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.9 17.2 1.7 67.7 64.6 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.9 14.6 2.2 72.7 69.2 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.9 15.4 1.6 67.1 64.6 13.9 15.9 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 17.3 16.5 13.8 1.2 62.1 60.8 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.1 16.6 1.6 67.7 64.3 13.2 15.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.0 14.2 1.5 65.8 63.7 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 18.6 18.5 16.4 1.8 68.9 65.8 14.2 16.2 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.9 17.6 15.1 1.6 66.2 63.8 13.8 15.7 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 18.2 18.0 15.7 1.5 66.1 63.8 14.1 16.1 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 17.8 17.6 15.0 1.6 67.4 64.8 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.5 14.9 1.2 62.4 61.1 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.1 18.2 16.2 1.5 65.3 62.3 14.2 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.6 16.2 2.4 76.4 72.3 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 18.8 18.5 15.2 1.5 65.9 63.8 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.0 16.7 16.3 1.5 67.4 63.8 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 17.2 16.9 14.7 1.5 65.1 62.8 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 17.8 17.7 17.0 1.7 68.7 65.0 13.4 15.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.0 12.7 1.3 63.3 62.0 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 18.0 17.8 16.7 1.6 66.7 64.1 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 17.7 17.4 16.3 1.4 65.8 62.6 13.6 15.6 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 18.1 18.2 17.4 2.0 71.0 66.7 13.6 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 18.6 18.4 16.3 1.6 66.4 63.5 14.2 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 17.1 16.9 15.5 1.5 66.7 64.2 13.3 15.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 17.9 17.7 14.3 1.7 68.5 65.9 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.4 16.1 1.5 66.5 63.9 13.6 15.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.6 15.3 2.2 72.7 69.3 13.4 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.1 13.9 1.3 62.7 61.2 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 17.5 17.2 16.8 1.6 67.6 64.4 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------