***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.2 15.0 1.5 66.5 63.1 12.4 14.3 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.8 15.7 15.1 1.6 68.2 64.4 12.1 13.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.8 15.5 1.6 67.9 64.1 12.6 14.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.5 10.7 12.9 1.7 69.1 64.8 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.1 16.3 13.6 1.4 65.8 62.9 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.3 12.3 1.0 60.5 58.7 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.4 15.0 1.5 67.8 64.1 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.1 8.7 12.7 1.3 64.3 62.0 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.8 16.7 14.4 1.6 66.5 63.5 12.8 14.8 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.2 13.5 1.5 65.2 62.5 12.4 14.4 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 17.0 16.6 13.6 1.4 65.1 62.5 12.7 14.8 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 16.9 16.5 13.3 1.4 65.5 63.0 12.5 14.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.4 12.9 1.2 62.9 61.1 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.4 16.6 14.6 1.5 65.4 61.9 12.4 14.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 15.0 15.1 13.4 1.7 70.0 65.1 11.8 13.3 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 17.7 17.2 13.3 1.3 64.5 61.9 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 14.8 14.7 14.8 1.5 67.4 64.0 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 15.5 15.2 13.5 1.5 64.7 61.8 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.0 15.4 1.7 68.7 64.6 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.4 11.2 1.1 61.9 60.0 10.1 12.1 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.2 16.4 14.8 1.5 65.8 62.7 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.5 14.8 1.4 66.8 63.5 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.7 16.2 15.7 1.7 69.2 64.7 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 17.1 16.9 14.7 1.6 66.5 62.9 12.7 14.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.2 15.2 13.4 1.4 65.6 62.4 11.8 13.6 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.5 12.9 1.6 68.1 65.5 12.7 14.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.1 16.1 14.3 1.4 65.7 62.6 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 15.7 15.8 13.2 1.7 68.5 64.1 12.0 13.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.5 12.6 1.2 62.4 60.1 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.7 15.1 1.6 68.1 64.2 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------