***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 12.5 0.4 55.1 55.0 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.8 12.6 0.5 56.3 55.8 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.8 13.0 0.5 55.8 55.6 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.2 10.1 0.3 53.3 53.7 4.1 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.6 11.0 0.3 53.6 54.2 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 10.3 0.3 53.3 53.8 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.7 12.5 0.5 56.4 55.7 9.3 11.0 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.1 10.6 0.7 57.8 57.4 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.2 11.8 0.5 55.0 55.1 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.6 11.3 0.6 56.6 56.3 10.2 12.0 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.1 11.2 0.5 55.4 55.7 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 11.2 0.7 58.2 57.8 10.2 12.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 10.8 0.6 56.7 56.9 10.2 12.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.5 12.3 0.7 56.8 56.3 10.9 12.8 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 9.1 11.2 10.6 0.2 52.5 52.8 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.4 11.0 0.5 55.3 55.7 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.3 12.3 0.5 55.5 54.9 9.3 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.7 11.4 0.8 58.1 57.2 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 12.9 0.6 56.8 56.1 9.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.2 9.5 0.9 59.6 58.7 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.6 12.2 0.4 53.9 54.2 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 12.3 0.4 54.9 54.6 9.8 11.4 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 13.2 0.7 57.6 56.8 10.0 11.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.7 12.3 0.7 57.3 56.5 10.9 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.6 11.0 0.3 53.5 53.8 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 13.9 13.0 10.8 0.9 60.4 59.3 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.3 12.0 0.4 55.0 54.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 9.4 11.1 10.4 0.2 52.5 53.1 9.6 10.9 12.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.3 10.7 0.8 58.2 57.4 6.5 8.4 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 12.6 0.5 56.3 55.8 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------