***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 16.0 16.6 16.3 2.1 79.4 75.0 13.4 14.5 15.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 15.5 16.2 16.4 2.1 80.7 75.5 13.3 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.0 16.8 2.2 79.8 75.2 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 9.9 10.7 14.2 2.5 82.6 78.0 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 16.4 16.9 15.0 2.1 78.3 74.2 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.1 13.6 1.7 75.0 70.9 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 15.4 16.0 16.3 2.1 80.7 75.5 13.1 14.0 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 8.1 8.6 14.0 2.1 79.3 74.9 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 16.7 17.4 15.8 2.2 80.0 75.4 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.7 14.8 2.1 78.9 74.5 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 16.7 17.1 15.1 2.0 77.7 73.7 14.0 15.2 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 16.4 17.0 14.6 2.1 80.1 75.3 13.7 14.9 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 16.7 17.0 14.4 1.7 74.9 71.1 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.7 17.3 16.0 2.1 79.0 74.0 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 15.1 15.7 15.3 2.5 84.4 79.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 17.3 17.8 14.8 2.0 77.5 73.3 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.5 16.1 2.1 80.8 75.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.9 14.7 2.2 79.7 74.6 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.5 16.7 2.3 81.5 76.3 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 13.4 13.9 12.7 2.1 79.6 74.8 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.9 16.2 2.0 78.3 74.1 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.6 16.2 16.0 1.9 78.9 74.0 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.1 17.0 17.1 2.5 83.9 78.2 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.9 17.5 16.0 2.2 79.9 74.8 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 15.5 15.9 15.0 2.0 78.3 74.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.1 14.2 2.3 82.7 77.6 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.6 15.7 2.0 78.9 74.5 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 15.5 16.1 14.7 2.4 81.6 77.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 12.5 13.1 13.9 2.1 78.7 73.8 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.1 16.5 2.1 80.3 75.3 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------