***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 1.9 1.1 1.8 14.1 16.7 11.1 3.6 8.0 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 1.5 1.3 2.4 20.6 22.8 14.5 2.5 6.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.0 1.7 14.0 16.5 10.9 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.3 9.9 14.6 9.1 2.9 6.9 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 1.6 1.0 1.5 12.2 14.2 9.4 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.4 1.2 9.1 12.9 7.7 2.3 5.1 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 1.7 1.3 2.2 19.1 21.9 14.3 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 2.8 2.1 2.0 14.2 16.3 11.1 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 2.1 1.2 1.5 12.1 13.6 9.5 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 2.2 1.4 1.9 13.7 15.4 11.2 4.2 8.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.5 1.7 13.5 17.0 11.0 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 1.6 1.1 1.6 12.7 16.0 9.5 3.3 6.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.6 11.8 15.1 9.2 3.0 6.2 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 3.5 2.7 2.5 18.2 19.2 13.8 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 1.0 0.4 1.0 7.9 15.0 8.6 2.1 5.8 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 1.7 1.3 1.6 12.0 15.4 9.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.7 23.5 25.0 16.8 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 2.3 1.4 2.3 15.6 15.7 11.9 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 2.4 1.8 2.3 19.7 21.3 13.7 4.0 9.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 2.2 1.6 2.8 17.1 17.8 12.8 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.6 12.8 15.3 9.8 3.3 6.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.1 2.1 3.3 28.5 28.3 18.1 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 2.1 1.5 1.9 16.0 17.8 12.1 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 2.3 1.4 2.1 15.5 17.1 12.3 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 1.7 0.9 1.7 12.5 15.5 9.8 3.1 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.1 8.8 13.2 7.4 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 1.8 1.1 1.9 14.5 17.4 11.0 3.2 7.0 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.2 9.2 14.8 8.9 2.9 6.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 3.2 2.2 2.5 16.5 16.7 12.6 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 2.0 1.7 2.2 19.2 21.7 13.6 3.5 7.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------