***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.7 9.6 77.8 54.8 41.6 2.5 4.9 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 6.0 9.7 85.2 57.5 42.0 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.6 9.8 77.9 54.2 41.4 3.1 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.0 7.0 9.2 69.0 52.2 37.0 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.7 9.6 73.0 52.9 37.3 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.8 8.7 67.5 50.4 34.9 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.9 9.6 83.2 56.7 42.1 2.3 4.0 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.5 9.2 11.9 83.0 56.7 41.4 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.0 6.7 10.4 78.9 55.5 40.1 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.8 12.0 85.2 57.7 41.9 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.7 5.7 10.0 71.7 50.7 36.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.3 9.9 73.9 52.1 37.2 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.1 9.8 72.0 52.4 35.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.6 9.9 12.8 87.5 58.5 44.4 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.6 8.8 66.9 51.7 34.6 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.0 4.8 9.4 71.3 52.0 36.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.4 10.2 89.3 59.6 42.9 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.9 13.9 95.2 61.5 45.6 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.9 9.9 86.0 57.9 42.7 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.1 16.1 91.2 58.6 44.4 3.2 6.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.6 75.3 53.4 39.1 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.4 10.8 90.4 60.3 43.9 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.1 10.4 85.8 57.9 43.9 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.9 12.3 87.9 58.7 44.5 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.9 4.6 9.9 71.1 51.0 38.2 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.5 5.9 9.3 68.3 49.4 34.1 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.0 10.0 76.0 53.6 40.2 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.1 4.9 8.5 68.0 51.9 35.5 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 4.8 12.5 15.1 95.3 61.0 45.6 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.3 9.5 80.1 55.2 41.2 2.3 4.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------