***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.2 8.6 63.7 49.8 37.2 2.7 5.2 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.3 8.9 78.0 55.7 42.0 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.3 8.2 62.3 49.1 37.1 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.3 6.3 10.7 75.2 55.3 39.8 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.0 10.3 74.7 54.6 38.9 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.8 4.3 9.4 72.4 53.4 37.4 2.0 3.9 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.0 9.2 79.2 56.1 41.4 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.9 12.4 82.1 57.4 41.8 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.7 10.1 69.8 52.1 38.3 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.6 11.5 75.1 54.5 40.5 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.7 10.5 77.9 56.4 40.1 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.6 10.8 81.6 57.4 40.6 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.2 10.3 77.0 55.6 40.0 2.6 5.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.4 10.9 71.3 52.9 40.4 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.8 4.9 10.8 74.0 55.9 39.9 1.9 4.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.3 10.1 78.3 56.8 40.2 2.3 4.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.5 9.9 85.0 58.6 42.1 2.1 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.5 12.0 73.3 53.4 40.6 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.8 8.7 75.0 54.6 41.7 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.8 16.5 82.7 57.3 42.5 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.4 4.9 8.9 65.2 49.7 37.0 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.7 10.0 81.7 57.2 42.2 2.3 5.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.8 8.6 70.4 52.7 40.4 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.3 10.1 68.2 51.5 39.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.8 10.1 69.3 51.9 38.8 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.8 10.5 75.9 54.4 39.0 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.3 66.9 50.9 38.1 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.8 5.0 10.2 75.2 55.8 39.0 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 11.3 13.3 75.6 53.8 41.1 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.8 8.5 70.4 52.4 39.8 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------