***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 18.2 18.8 31.0 60.4 28.1 28.3 22.1 34.0 48.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 16.5 18.6 31.0 67.3 32.5 31.4 18.9 30.8 46.2 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 18.8 19.8 31.0 61.4 28.6 28.2 22.6 35.1 50.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 22.1 23.5 32.6 59.1 28.7 29.1 26.6 39.7 55.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 23.2 24.0 32.4 61.4 29.8 29.9 25.8 35.8 47.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 14.1 14.7 29.5 56.9 26.8 26.3 17.7 27.1 38.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 15.0 16.9 31.0 66.5 32.1 31.3 17.4 28.0 41.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 29.2 32.1 37.3 63.9 31.5 31.5 33.7 49.5 68.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 20.4 20.9 33.6 62.5 30.0 30.0 22.6 32.2 43.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 25.8 27.5 37.2 64.2 30.8 30.9 28.7 40.0 52.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 21.5 22.4 32.3 61.1 30.3 30.0 24.0 33.9 45.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 18.7 20.2 32.0 61.1 30.3 30.1 21.6 32.0 44.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 16.6 16.4 31.9 59.2 28.2 28.3 19.4 31.3 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 33.2 36.9 39.2 66.6 30.5 29.8 39.1 54.6 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 14.8 15.3 32.2 58.7 31.4 30.7 16.2 28.0 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 16.9 17.4 31.0 60.0 30.6 29.8 18.8 29.3 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 16.9 19.9 32.7 71.0 34.9 33.5 18.6 30.3 45.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 28.0 30.0 40.8 66.7 30.5 31.2 31.4 42.0 53.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 19.2 21.8 31.2 67.1 32.3 31.1 22.4 36.3 53.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 28.8 30.9 49.6 67.1 30.7 32.1 32.8 46.8 63.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 19.0 19.9 31.6 60.7 28.6 28.7 22.5 33.5 47.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 18.6 22.2 34.8 72.2 35.8 33.8 20.1 33.4 50.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 20.6 23.2 31.9 65.5 31.3 30.2 24.5 38.3 55.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 26.0 29.1 36.9 65.6 30.5 30.1 30.8 44.1 59.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 16.3 17.1 33.6 59.6 27.6 28.2 20.6 32.9 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 13.5 14.1 30.7 57.2 26.9 27.6 17.6 29.5 44.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 15.0 14.9 32.5 60.6 27.6 28.4 17.9 29.0 42.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 13.4 13.8 30.3 58.2 30.6 30.0 15.2 25.7 39.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 39.9 42.6 44.1 67.4 30.2 31.4 45.0 60.0 77.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 17.4 18.7 30.5 64.2 30.9 30.0 19.9 31.5 46.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------