***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.2 4.0 6.9 -0.5 39.8 41.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.9 6.6 -0.2 45.0 45.5 3.2 4.2 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.2 6.0 6.9 -0.4 41.5 42.9 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 0.2 0.8 4.0 -0.5 37.9 40.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.2 5.0 -0.3 42.3 43.7 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.8 3.1 -0.2 46.6 47.3 2.1 3.0 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.9 3.8 6.7 -0.3 43.2 44.4 3.3 4.1 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 3.6 0.1 53.4 51.8 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.4 5.4 0.0 49.0 48.7 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.3 4.3 0.1 52.3 51.0 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.6 4.7 -0.1 46.9 47.2 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.8 4.1 -0.1 47.9 48.0 2.1 2.9 3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.3 4.1 0.0 49.5 49.3 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.0 5.5 0.1 53.2 51.6 4.1 4.9 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.8 5.3 -0.3 43.7 44.4 3.3 4.1 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.3 4.1 -0.2 45.3 46.2 3.7 4.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.0 4.0 6.5 -0.2 45.8 46.4 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.9 3.8 0.1 52.3 51.0 2.1 2.8 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.1 4.1 6.6 -0.2 45.9 46.1 3.5 4.3 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.4 0.5 2.8 0.4 59.9 56.4 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.8 6.4 -0.3 42.6 43.8 3.3 4.2 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.5 6.5 -0.2 45.5 46.1 2.9 3.7 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.2 6.7 -0.1 48.4 47.9 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.9 5.3 0.0 50.3 49.6 3.1 3.9 4.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.3 4.0 5.8 -0.5 38.3 40.5 3.7 4.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.7 3.8 0.0 51.1 50.8 2.8 3.7 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.1 6.5 -0.4 40.5 42.2 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.3 4.3 -0.4 41.4 43.0 1.9 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.8 3.5 0.4 58.0 55.1 1.6 2.4 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.2 4.1 6.7 -0.3 43.1 44.0 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------