***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 13.6 12.8 13.1 -4.0 11.2 12.6 15.2 16.5 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 13.8 13.3 13.7 -3.6 13.4 15.1 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 14.2 13.5 13.8 -3.8 13.1 15.0 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 6.5 4.7 9.1 -5.1 7.2 8.6 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 14.1 13.0 11.5 -4.4 10.0 12.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 14.4 14.1 11.2 -3.0 20.3 22.9 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 13.8 13.4 13.7 -3.4 14.5 16.1 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 6.4 6.4 11.8 -2.7 23.0 25.5 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 14.3 13.3 12.7 -4.0 11.4 13.4 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 14.1 13.8 12.2 -3.3 18.2 20.6 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 14.0 13.4 12.7 -3.7 14.3 16.6 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 14.4 14.3 12.3 -2.8 21.3 23.7 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 15.6 15.6 13.7 -2.3 25.4 27.5 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 15.0 14.9 14.3 -2.5 23.5 26.0 15.8 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 13.0 12.1 11.8 -4.3 9.3 10.5 14.5 15.7 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 15.4 15.0 12.4 -3.3 17.0 19.3 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 13.5 13.1 13.4 -3.3 14.9 16.7 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.8 12.2 -2.6 23.8 26.3 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 13.8 13.3 13.9 -3.5 14.6 16.5 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 12.8 11.7 -1.3 35.9 37.5 12.5 14.0 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 14.1 13.2 13.4 -4.1 11.2 13.1 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 14.1 13.8 13.9 -3.0 16.8 18.9 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 14.5 14.2 14.4 -3.0 18.1 20.3 15.5 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 14.8 14.5 13.7 -3.0 19.4 22.0 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 13.7 12.8 11.9 -4.4 10.1 11.5 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 15.4 15.5 12.2 -2.1 27.0 28.8 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 14.3 13.7 12.8 -3.8 12.8 14.2 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 13.0 11.8 10.5 -4.7 9.0 10.4 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.3 12.4 -1.8 31.5 33.5 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 13.8 13.2 13.6 -3.7 12.9 14.6 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------