***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 11.9 12.1 14.0 -1.8 26.0 32.9 13.0 15.1 17.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.2 -1.8 27.5 33.8 13.1 15.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 12.4 13.0 14.5 -1.8 27.9 34.7 13.6 15.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 5.6 5.2 10.8 -2.4 21.3 29.0 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 12.4 12.5 12.5 -2.1 24.3 32.2 13.6 15.6 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 12.0 12.7 11.7 -1.8 29.4 36.5 13.1 15.0 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 12.0 12.3 14.2 -1.7 27.9 34.1 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.7 5.3 11.8 -1.7 30.0 37.3 5.6 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 12.6 13.1 13.4 -1.9 26.6 34.2 13.9 15.8 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 12.4 13.1 12.5 -1.8 29.2 36.7 13.6 15.4 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 12.7 13.1 13.0 -1.9 27.2 34.9 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 12.3 12.8 12.3 -1.8 28.3 36.1 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 12.8 13.4 12.9 -1.7 29.4 37.2 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 13.1 13.9 14.0 -1.5 32.1 38.8 14.0 16.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 12.2 11.9 12.4 -2.2 22.3 29.5 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 13.4 13.8 12.6 -1.9 27.4 35.3 14.5 16.4 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.9 -1.6 29.3 35.0 12.6 14.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 11.5 12.6 12.3 -1.6 32.0 39.0 12.8 14.7 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 12.3 12.6 14.4 -1.7 28.4 34.8 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 9.5 10.7 10.7 -1.3 35.1 41.3 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 12.5 12.9 14.0 -1.9 26.3 33.7 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.9 14.1 -1.6 30.1 35.8 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 12.6 13.2 14.7 -1.6 30.7 36.9 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 12.9 13.7 13.8 -1.7 30.7 37.8 14.0 16.1 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 11.7 11.8 12.7 -2.0 24.2 31.7 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 12.8 13.4 12.0 -1.5 30.4 37.0 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 12.3 12.6 13.6 -1.8 26.8 33.7 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 12.0 11.7 11.6 -2.3 22.2 29.7 13.0 14.9 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 8.3 9.6 11.8 -1.4 33.8 40.5 9.5 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 12.0 12.3 14.2 -1.8 27.2 33.7 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------