***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.7 12.8 -0.7 40.7 43.2 11.8 13.8 15.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.7 12.9 -0.6 42.2 44.3 11.7 13.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 11.6 13.3 13.2 -0.6 42.4 44.6 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 6.7 10.3 -0.9 39.3 42.3 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.8 11.3 -0.9 39.7 43.0 12.0 14.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.3 12.9 10.7 -0.7 42.1 45.6 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.3 12.9 -0.7 41.6 43.8 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.2 5.9 10.8 -0.6 42.7 46.1 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 11.8 13.4 12.0 -0.7 41.4 44.3 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.5 13.2 11.4 -0.6 42.8 45.8 12.1 14.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 11.6 13.2 11.4 -0.8 40.1 43.7 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.5 13.1 11.2 -0.8 40.8 44.6 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 11.7 13.4 11.0 -0.8 40.8 44.9 12.4 14.5 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.6 13.7 12.5 -0.4 45.6 47.5 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.2 11.0 -0.8 40.2 42.9 11.5 13.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.2 13.8 11.1 -0.9 39.6 43.4 13.0 15.0 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.1 12.7 -0.6 42.8 44.7 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.6 12.5 11.4 -0.5 44.7 47.3 11.2 13.1 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 11.2 12.8 13.1 -0.6 43.0 45.0 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.9 11.2 9.6 -0.3 46.6 48.9 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 11.6 13.1 12.5 -0.8 40.8 43.5 12.2 14.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.7 12.7 -0.5 43.7 45.4 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 11.1 13.0 13.3 -0.5 44.3 46.1 11.6 13.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.8 13.8 12.4 -0.5 44.3 46.6 12.4 14.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.1 11.3 -0.8 39.6 42.4 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 11.8 13.5 10.9 -0.6 42.8 46.4 12.4 14.3 16.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.9 12.3 -0.8 40.4 43.0 12.0 13.9 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.5 10.7 -0.9 39.6 42.6 11.8 13.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.8 10.1 10.9 -0.4 45.9 48.3 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.5 12.9 -0.7 41.8 44.1 11.5 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------