***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.8 12.4 11.7 0.4 55.5 54.3 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.9 11.4 11.7 0.4 54.9 53.7 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.1 12.9 12.2 0.5 56.5 55.0 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.7 9.6 0.8 58.8 57.1 4.2 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.2 10.5 0.8 58.7 56.8 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.4 9.8 0.8 58.9 57.1 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 8.7 11.3 11.6 0.4 55.0 53.7 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.1 9.8 0.8 59.1 56.7 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.6 11.2 0.9 59.5 57.0 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.9 10.6 0.9 59.6 57.0 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.4 10.6 0.8 58.9 56.9 10.6 12.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 10.3 0.8 58.9 56.8 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.1 10.0 0.7 57.9 56.2 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.5 13.5 11.4 0.7 57.7 55.4 10.9 12.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.5 10.3 0.9 60.2 58.6 9.2 10.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.7 10.3 0.8 58.3 56.6 10.7 12.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.5 11.0 11.5 0.5 56.2 54.3 8.9 10.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 10.5 0.9 59.7 56.9 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 9.2 11.9 11.9 0.4 54.9 53.7 9.8 11.5 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.0 8.6 0.8 58.5 56.1 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.1 11.7 0.7 58.1 56.1 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.0 11.6 11.5 0.4 54.9 53.6 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.4 12.1 12.1 0.5 55.8 54.2 9.8 11.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.9 11.4 0.8 58.9 56.3 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.0 10.4 0.6 56.9 55.3 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.6 9.8 0.7 58.9 57.4 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.7 12.4 11.2 0.5 55.7 54.3 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.5 10.0 0.8 59.5 57.8 9.5 10.8 12.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.5 9.9 0.9 59.3 56.8 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 9.0 11.5 11.7 0.4 54.7 53.7 9.4 11.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------