***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 12.4 12.2 12.9 -1.5 21.2 27.4 13.2 14.3 15.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 12.3 12.3 13.1 -1.4 23.4 29.2 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.4 -1.4 23.7 29.8 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 6.5 6.0 9.9 -1.9 17.9 23.7 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 13.0 12.8 11.5 -1.7 20.6 27.4 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.9 10.8 -1.2 29.8 35.5 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 12.1 12.1 13.1 -1.3 23.9 29.7 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.2 5.6 11.0 -1.0 30.5 36.0 5.8 6.7 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 13.2 13.2 12.3 -1.5 23.1 30.0 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 12.9 13.2 11.7 -1.2 27.9 34.0 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 13.1 13.2 11.9 -1.4 24.2 30.9 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 12.9 13.2 11.5 -1.1 28.6 34.5 13.5 14.6 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 13.4 13.8 11.9 -1.0 30.8 36.5 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 13.4 13.9 13.1 -0.9 32.5 37.2 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 12.1 12.0 11.4 -1.6 21.4 26.4 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.9 11.6 -1.3 25.9 32.4 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 11.9 12.0 12.9 -1.2 25.6 31.0 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 12.1 12.6 11.6 -0.9 32.6 37.7 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.3 -1.3 24.8 30.3 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 10.1 11.1 10.1 -0.5 39.8 42.6 10.7 11.8 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 13.0 12.9 12.9 -1.5 22.0 28.6 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 12.4 12.6 13.0 -1.2 26.9 31.9 13.0 14.1 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.7 13.0 13.6 -1.1 28.4 33.5 13.3 14.4 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 13.5 13.9 12.8 -1.1 29.6 35.3 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 12.2 11.9 11.6 -1.7 19.9 26.3 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.6 11.2 -0.9 33.0 37.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 12.8 12.7 12.5 -1.5 22.3 28.5 13.4 14.5 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 12.4 12.1 10.7 -1.8 20.2 25.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 9.1 10.0 11.3 -0.7 37.3 40.9 9.7 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 12.3 12.2 13.1 -1.4 22.9 28.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------