***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.1 12.7 117.6 69.7 55.9 3.8 8.3 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.6 17.8 15.0 145.2 76.5 58.8 2.6 6.2 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.4 13.1 124.7 71.6 57.6 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.0 17.0 13.3 119.4 71.0 58.6 3.4 7.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.4 16.3 12.9 128.7 72.9 59.8 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.5 11.5 12.1 129.2 73.0 59.4 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 13.1 15.4 14.8 142.1 75.8 58.4 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.6 22.2 15.8 139.4 75.3 62.9 5.3 10.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.3 15.8 13.8 130.7 73.2 59.6 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 18.5 20.8 15.3 135.7 74.4 61.7 5.1 9.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.0 17.5 14.0 139.9 75.4 61.7 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.6 15.9 14.0 135.2 74.5 61.8 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 12.8 15.0 13.6 135.7 74.6 62.0 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 25.6 31.9 17.2 143.9 76.2 61.4 6.1 12.9 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.3 16.1 13.8 118.8 71.7 59.3 2.5 6.4 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.4 14.3 13.7 134.1 74.4 61.7 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 12.8 17.5 16.9 162.4 79.8 61.8 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 15.9 19.4 17.4 142.3 75.9 62.0 4.1 8.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 20.3 24.1 14.8 140.6 75.5 58.8 4.2 9.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 20.3 25.0 19.0 145.8 76.6 63.2 5.1 10.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.5 17.8 13.7 126.5 72.1 58.4 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.5 21.2 17.2 153.1 78.1 61.5 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.1 23.1 14.7 138.0 75.0 59.5 4.1 9.1 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 21.0 26.0 16.0 143.9 76.2 61.5 4.9 10.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.9 15.1 12.0 105.2 66.4 53.9 3.6 8.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.2 14.3 11.6 120.7 71.1 60.4 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 14.4 12.4 110.1 67.7 54.2 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 14.6 13.4 126.3 72.8 60.0 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 21.7 27.6 19.0 149.9 77.4 63.3 6.7 12.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 17.8 19.8 13.9 135.0 74.2 58.0 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------