***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.0 14.3 93.9 60.8 47.6 2.7 5.1 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.7 14.2 111.2 66.9 53.0 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.7 14.4 98.8 62.7 51.6 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.6 15.9 92.8 61.7 51.2 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.1 14.7 92.2 60.8 50.4 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.3 13.8 101.5 64.5 50.3 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.5 13.9 105.2 64.8 50.5 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.1 16.0 101.8 63.7 52.8 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.5 14.5 90.6 60.2 49.2 3.3 5.6 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.5 15.7 98.5 62.4 51.6 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.8 14.9 96.4 61.4 51.1 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.3 14.6 98.6 62.7 51.5 2.7 4.9 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.0 14.5 97.1 63.1 50.5 2.9 5.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.6 16.2 101.2 63.0 52.0 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.4 14.9 91.1 61.8 49.9 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.8 13.8 94.5 61.7 49.8 2.0 4.4 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.2 13.5 101.5 63.3 49.4 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.3 15.7 99.4 62.9 52.3 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.3 9.0 14.0 108.4 65.8 52.8 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.6 20.1 102.6 64.0 53.4 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.0 14.3 90.5 60.2 49.0 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.6 13.4 99.3 62.2 49.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.8 14.1 100.5 62.9 50.8 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.5 14.6 96.8 61.5 50.8 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.3 16.4 96.7 62.0 49.9 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.9 14.9 100.8 63.9 50.9 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.8 15.3 95.7 61.5 48.3 2.1 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.8 14.9 96.1 63.1 52.0 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 13.3 16.8 99.0 62.6 52.0 5.1 9.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.7 14.2 106.2 65.3 52.2 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------