***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.3 12.9 86.9 58.8 44.9 3.4 6.3 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 5.9 9.6 68.7 51.1 40.9 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.2 12.0 81.0 57.1 44.6 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.5 14.0 85.0 59.6 46.9 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.5 13.0 83.9 58.5 46.6 3.5 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.9 13.8 84.6 58.5 46.1 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.8 9.9 73.0 53.3 41.9 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.1 13.5 13.7 88.0 59.2 46.0 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.3 12.3 79.4 56.5 45.6 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.6 13.2 82.5 57.5 46.3 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 8.0 13.2 88.4 60.0 47.4 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.4 12.9 88.9 60.0 46.3 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.1 9.1 14.2 89.1 60.1 46.5 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.8 13.1 79.1 55.5 45.1 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.7 14.3 82.0 59.6 46.6 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.1 13.6 89.1 60.6 47.2 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.3 9.0 67.2 49.4 40.3 2.0 4.5 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.2 13.1 78.9 55.9 46.0 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.5 10.2 71.6 52.7 42.4 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.1 16.8 87.5 58.7 46.1 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.7 11.9 79.8 56.6 45.5 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.2 9.6 69.4 50.8 40.8 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.2 11.3 77.2 55.3 44.7 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.5 12.0 75.8 55.1 45.6 3.1 6.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.9 13.8 87.0 59.0 46.6 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.0 6.6 13.8 85.7 59.0 44.3 2.1 4.7 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.6 13.2 87.1 59.0 45.4 2.6 5.5 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.0 13.6 84.3 59.8 46.9 2.0 4.1 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 13.3 13.8 78.8 55.4 45.2 5.5 11.2 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.9 10.9 75.7 55.1 42.2 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------