***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.2 10.2 97.8 63.2 46.1 3.7 7.3 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 14.9 10.9 116.0 69.1 47.1 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.0 9.8 90.5 59.8 45.0 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.1 9.5 83.7 58.6 43.7 3.8 8.2 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.6 9.3 81.4 57.0 43.7 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.2 9.9 80.1 57.4 44.1 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.1 13.5 10.2 107.5 66.8 45.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.8 10.4 83.4 57.6 44.9 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.3 9.6 78.5 55.1 43.2 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.3 10.4 80.4 55.6 44.1 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.1 9.4 81.9 57.2 44.2 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.0 9.3 82.0 57.4 43.7 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.0 10.3 85.3 59.0 44.1 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.4 12.3 92.3 59.9 46.4 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 7.9 9.1 80.6 57.7 42.9 2.4 5.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.1 9.7 85.2 58.8 44.4 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.5 16.9 11.0 117.4 69.7 47.1 4.1 8.4 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.3 11.3 82.7 56.1 44.6 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 13.3 10.7 110.5 67.0 47.0 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.1 12.5 14.0 93.0 60.5 46.2 3.7 8.1 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.6 9.4 82.8 57.3 44.0 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.1 16.8 11.9 121.2 70.6 48.0 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.4 10.3 95.7 61.6 45.4 3.5 7.0 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.4 10.4 82.0 55.5 43.9 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.2 10.3 90.7 60.6 45.1 2.6 6.1 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.5 10.0 82.3 57.8 41.9 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.0 10.4 97.0 63.0 46.4 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.8 8.9 81.1 57.6 43.4 2.1 5.0 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.8 12.6 88.5 58.4 45.3 4.3 9.2 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.7 11.9 10.3 105.9 65.8 45.6 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------