***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 22.1 40.2 50.1 97.7 56.9 50.2 21.7 34.1 49.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.6 43.6 49.6 107.0 62.6 54.5 19.8 32.0 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 43.4 41.4 49.3 97.2 56.4 50.7 23.2 35.7 51.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 48.0 44.4 52.6 93.9 54.1 49.6 27.7 41.0 56.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 42.5 39.7 50.0 94.4 53.7 49.8 26.9 37.2 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 31.5 28.4 49.6 96.1 54.7 49.8 15.9 25.4 37.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 18.6 38.2 48.9 104.5 61.3 53.0 18.3 29.2 42.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 59.7 59.8 55.9 101.5 58.2 53.3 34.6 50.9 70.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 38.4 33.8 50.2 92.5 51.9 48.4 22.4 32.6 44.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 47.3 44.8 54.6 97.2 54.9 50.7 30.0 41.3 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 39.7 39.4 51.5 99.3 56.9 52.2 23.8 34.3 46.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 38.1 37.3 50.8 99.6 57.1 52.2 20.3 31.7 45.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 38.5 37.4 52.6 99.4 57.0 51.9 18.6 31.0 47.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 64.4 64.4 58.8 101.7 58.4 52.2 39.5 55.4 73.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 36.0 31.7 52.0 91.9 54.2 49.0 16.8 28.2 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 34.9 33.7 50.8 98.8 56.8 51.9 17.0 28.3 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.5 44.6 50.4 108.3 63.3 54.9 20.2 32.4 47.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 48.2 46.7 57.5 98.7 55.8 51.1 32.0 42.8 54.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 23.9 48.7 49.8 104.9 61.2 53.9 22.9 36.9 54.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.9 59.1 70.0 104.6 60.2 54.6 33.5 48.5 66.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 40.6 36.7 49.4 93.1 53.3 49.1 22.8 34.3 48.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 21.6 48.3 52.2 107.6 62.9 54.8 21.2 34.8 52.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 47.8 47.1 50.4 100.7 58.3 52.3 24.8 38.8 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 51.3 48.7 53.0 96.9 55.1 50.3 30.6 44.1 59.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 41.0 36.9 52.5 94.5 54.3 49.1 20.9 33.2 48.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 36.8 33.6 50.4 95.6 54.8 50.0 17.5 29.5 45.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 18.5 34.1 51.3 96.6 56.2 49.8 17.9 29.0 43.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 34.0 31.4 50.8 95.4 55.5 50.3 16.7 27.2 40.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 68.5 68.8 62.1 101.2 57.7 52.2 45.7 61.0 78.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.0 41.6 49.4 103.2 60.4 53.0 20.7 32.5 47.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------