***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.3 8.1 -0.5 40.7 41.8 4.8 5.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.9 7.5 -0.7 37.5 39.0 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.4 8.1 -0.3 44.1 44.7 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.6 6.2 0.5 59.2 57.0 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.7 6.8 0.4 58.3 56.6 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.8 5.3 1.0 68.7 63.3 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.9 7.4 -0.9 35.5 37.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.4 1.4 5.2 0.4 57.3 55.0 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.5 7.3 7.5 0.8 66.4 63.6 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.4 6.1 0.6 60.5 58.2 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.2 6.6 0.7 63.9 60.9 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.3 6.0 0.6 61.3 58.4 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.2 6.2 1.0 68.0 63.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.3 7.0 0.1 52.4 51.9 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.6 8.0 1.1 73.1 66.6 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.3 6.4 0.9 67.3 63.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.8 6.9 -0.9 34.2 35.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.0 5.3 0.3 54.8 53.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.3 7.7 -0.5 41.1 42.2 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.6 3.3 -0.2 46.5 46.6 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.9 8.1 0.1 52.0 51.4 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.3 7.2 -0.8 35.4 36.9 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.5 7.8 -0.2 46.7 47.1 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 5.6 5.6 6.9 0.3 55.1 54.0 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.0 7.5 -0.3 45.3 45.8 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.0 5.7 0.6 60.1 56.6 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.9 7.7 -0.4 42.9 43.6 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 5.4 5.3 6.8 0.8 66.6 62.5 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.1 4.6 0.2 54.3 53.0 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.2 7.8 -0.7 38.4 39.8 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------