***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.5 6.8 -1.2 32.1 36.3 2.6 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.3 6.5 -1.2 31.4 36.1 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.3 4.9 6.6 -1.1 32.7 37.1 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.6 0.2 4.3 -1.0 34.6 37.8 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.0 4.3 -1.1 33.8 37.5 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.0 1.5 2.8 -1.0 34.1 40.4 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.3 6.4 -1.3 30.9 35.3 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.5 -1.8 3.1 -1.0 34.8 39.5 -1.9 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.0 2.8 4.9 -1.1 33.5 37.6 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.2 2.8 3.7 -1.0 34.1 38.5 2.7 4.1 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.8 2.5 4.1 -0.9 35.7 39.0 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.8 3.9 -0.9 36.0 40.0 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.0 3.5 -0.9 35.1 39.8 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.8 3.5 5.1 -1.0 33.7 38.5 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.2 4.9 -0.8 37.7 40.1 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.3 3.7 -0.9 35.7 39.5 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.1 2.4 6.2 -1.3 31.1 35.7 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 0.9 1.6 3.4 -1.0 34.3 39.1 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 2.6 6.6 -1.1 32.2 37.0 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -1.4 1.8 -1.2 32.6 38.7 -1.3 0.0 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.4 6.1 -1.1 33.0 37.2 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.7 6.2 -1.2 30.9 36.1 1.9 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.8 6.4 -1.0 33.5 38.2 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.6 4.9 -1.0 34.6 39.0 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.3 3.1 5.4 -1.0 33.6 37.2 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.3 3.6 -1.0 33.0 39.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.7 2.6 6.1 -1.2 32.8 36.7 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.1 1.7 4.3 -0.9 35.7 38.9 1.5 2.8 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.3 2.9 -1.0 35.2 39.9 1.0 2.7 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.6 6.7 -1.2 31.5 36.0 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------